Topic: Wargaming For Leaders
The interesting thing about discontinuity is it happens between when you go to bed and when you wake up the next morning. The first thing I do each day is look at the front page of the newspaper, its how you first discover discontinuity. As written in our soon to be released book, I discovered that Saddam Hussein had invaded Kuwait from the front page of the Washington Post someone was reading across from me in the Metro. My top discontinuity to watch at the moment is Pakistan.
Pakistan: A civil war has broken out in a nuclear-armed country. Pakistan is reaping what it sowed by clandestinely supporting the Taliban and Al Qaeda as leverage over India and Afghanistan. The ISI has been out of control for years and now the Zardari government is trying to put it all back together. It will be no surprise, but a major discontinuity, if the government falls and Pakistan fragments.
I think it is time to start sorting out US options if Pakistan folds.